King County, Seattle, and Belleve Real Estate Blog, News, Statistics, and Market Trends
FREE Homebuyer Seminar - Come learn the tricks of the trade for today's evolving market! January 23rd, 2012
On Tuesday, February 9th, from 6:30PM to 8:00PM we are proud to be hosting a free homebuyer seminar designed to leave you, the homebuyer, better prepared for a successful purchase in today's dynamic and evolving real estate market.
Buying a home is an exciting and rewarding process, and our role is to put the tools in your pocket that will help you maximize your negotiations and make the entire home buying process go smoothly.
- Prospera Real Estate - Seattle and Bellevue real estate blog and news
Bellevue and Seattle Area Real Estate Trends: 2011 Year in Review January 9th, 2012
2011 Looks to have gone down as a year of progress and transition for the Seattle and Bellevue real estate market; many positive developments have occurred, yet there will still be some lingering issues to work through (primarily in the form of distressed sales).
On the positive side of things is that buyer demand has stayed consistently strong relative to supply, which has lent a hand in stabilizing home values. In Bellevue, for example, single family home sales grew again in 2011 and outpaced 2010 by 5.5%. Though the overall median selling prices for single family homes have fallen at times throughout the year, it is reassuring to see that the median selling prices of non-distressed, traditional sales trended very flat throughout 2011. This highlights how bank owned sales and short sales drag down the median selling prices consumers see reported in the news.
Though distressed sales seem likely to impact the market throughout the first half of 2012, the impact is in ways beginning to be offset by a more competitive market where buyers have fewer homes to choose from. A 5-6 month supply of homes is considered to be a neutral market and one that favors neither buyer nor seller ("supply" is the amount of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes on the market at the current pace of sales). In Seattle, the monthly supply has dropped to as low as 2.91 months in 2011, while generally hovering around 4 months for the year.
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate analyst
Industry analysts believe residential housing market ready to awaken December 9th, 2011
It seems nearly everyone is a naysayer when it comes to the real estate market. In fact, I get asked all the time about "how's the real estate market doing," and over 90% of the time I am met with opposition when I say "2012 could be a good year for real estate, and here's why."
It also seems that everyone American has an opinion and thinks they are an expert on the real estate market these days. Personally, as a real estate professional who prides himself on his knowledge of the market, I spend an immense amount of time immersing myself in data and learning as much as possible about our local real estate market and the factors that affect it on the local and national level. So, I do consider myself a rather well versed analyst.
It is of my opinion that we are already experiencing a housing recovery, or more appropriately that the necessary components for a sustained housing recovery continue to grow… but don't tell my mother that (one of the most recent "experts" I have encountered).
I've talked at length for a while now as to the stats and factors that make me believe 2012 can be a good year for the Seattle area housing market, so I'm not going to delve into them again. But, in a nutshell, these factors include (but are not limited to):
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate analyst
Bellevue and Seattle area real estate update through November 2011 December 6th, 2011
By now you may have read an article about home values falling again in King County. It is true that the overall median selling price of homes has fallen, but I would like to shed some more light on the entire outlook. Simply put, real estate in King County is much more dynamic than just looking at it as a whole lumped together.
Digging into the leading culprit of lower prices, distressed sales (short sales and foreclosure sales) of single family home in King County as a whole came in at 32% of all sales, and that is an awful lot. Lower median selling prices should be expected with a tally that high simply because distressed sales sell at discounts (though they generally are in major need of repair which offsets some of that discount). However, that 32% tally does not paint the whole picture.
There are areas within King County where there are far fewer distressed sales affecting neighborhoods and communities. In Bellevue, for example, distressed sales of single family homes accounted for only 15% of sales, and much of the year has had distressed sales below 20% of market share. As a result, prices have trended flat for over a year. Contrary to cities like Bellevue is a King County city like Federal Way, where 55% of single family home sales were distressed. So, to get to the 32% total for all of King County one can see that there is a mix of areas struggling much more than others, and as a result the county wide median selling price suffers.
- Prospera Real Estate's Bellevue and Seattle area real estate update, blog, trends, and news
Good news for Seattle area real estate - Boeing set to build 737MAX in Renton November 30th, 2011
Boeing and the Machinists union have reached a tentative agreement that would ensure Boeing's modernized 737, called the 737MAX, be built here in Washington.
Home values have been largely affected by the volume of foreclosures on the market, and we have just recently seen more foreclosures come to the market which has led to falling prices in the last two months. Varying home values should be expected month to month due to a number of factors that affect the market, and these variances have been large at times due to influences like the first time home buyer tax credits that altered prices and shifted demand as recently as the first half of last year.
Locally speaking, prices have moved all over the place from month to month (check out our Bellevue real estate statistics or Seattle real estate statistics pages for a month by month breakdown), so it's always a good idea to look at the longer trends. And in this case, the Standard and Poor's / Case-Shiller home price index put home values unchanged quarter over quarter.
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate analyst
Why 2012 could be a big year for the Seattle area real estate market November 28th, 2011
Being knowledgeable about the real estate market and the factors that affect it is the first priority for a real estate professional who wants to be able to provide clientele with wise counsel.
As a result, I spend a lot of time researching the local real estate statistics, news, and trends. I also spend a lot of time following the national real estate news as well as broader financial news to get a feel for consumer tendencies and sentiment. I also understand that general consumer apprehension has played a pivotal role in keeping buyers on the sidelines.
Every passing week I find myself gaining more confidence that real estate is poised to bust out of its slump in a big way, and my reasoning is simple… I have a suspicion that many buyers will come to the market when they get the feeling of "oh, the economy and real estate seem to be doing well." I personally cannot blame potential buyers for being apprehensive, because after all, real estate is a big investment. Though, at some point the veil will be lifted and the financial and intrinsic benefits of homeownership will begin to outweigh the concern that has kept many buyers on the sidelines.
So why do I think 2012 may be when the tide turns?
- Robert E. Wasser - Bellevue and Seattle real estate analyst
Rent vs. Buy? Average net worth of homeowners more than 45 times that of renters November 22nd, 2011
There is no doubt that owning a home doesn't always make sense. If job security is a concern, for instance, then renting may be a safer short term bet. However, one look at the median net worth of homeowners paints a pretty bleak picture for those who think renting is a good mid-long term solution.
As of the most recent data from the Federal Reserve Board (jump to page A11 for the net worth table), the median homeowner's net worth is more than 45 times that of a renter. That's a pretty astounding difference.
There are surely many ways to explain the gap in net worth between homeowners and renters, though the numbers in the most recent data rather plainly speak for themselves…
If you have thought about owning a home, then click on over to our "Buyers" page to learn how we can help you achieve the dream of homeownership.
- Prospera Real Estate's Bellevue and Seattle real estate blog, news, trends, and statistics
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Bellevue and Seattle area real estate update through October 2011 November 4th, 2011
October proved to be an interesting month for real estate in the Bellevue and Seattle area, and some of the unique factors affecting the trends are a microcosm for the local recovery.
Brokers in the area agree that real estate has been behaving relatively normal and healthy for most of 2011, and it has done so through a mix of positive and negative factors that affect the real estate market. An example of a positive trend for both Bellevue and Seattle is the ease in which appropriately presented and priced homes are selling (average time on market for sold, single family homes is only 52 days in Bellevue and 50 in Seattle).
Additionally, the supply of homes (months it takes to sell all existing listings at the current sales pace) in Bellevue and Seattle has bounced around the four month mark for the majority of 2011. An inventory of five to six months is considered a neutral market while below five months favors the seller and more than six months is considered a buyer's market. Inventory levels teetering slightly in favor of the buyer have led to quicker sales and have helped stabilize prices, serving as a promising stepping stone into 2012.
Still, with all the good the local real estate market is seeing, there are still many national factors that have kept the real estate market in check. The volatility in the stock market, the White House quarrel over raising the debt limit, and the European debt crisis all effect consumer sentiment which keeps some buyers on the sideline.
A current example of a national factor affecting the local real estate market is the adjustment in October of the conforming loan limits for government backed loans. The government previously raised the conforming loan limit years ago in many areas of higher priced real estate, the Seattle area being one, and the temporary increase in conforming loan limit just expired in October. The reason this is important is because loans above the now $506,000 limit are considered "jumbo loans" and come with a higher interest rate. Many buyers were surprised to see their loan programs and payments change prior to closing and were suddenly unable to qualify for a loan on the home they chose; this may be one of the reason closed sales of single family homes in Seattle fell 6.1% month over month while pending sales only dropped 2.4% the previous month. Further, buyers completing fewer sales in the $500,000+ price range would lead to fewer sales for the month of October as well as lower median selling prices. This was the case in both Seattle where the median selling price of single family homes fell month over.
Month over month variances in median selling prices should always be taken with a grain of salt, though the adjustment in conforming loan limits is an example of factors that can affect real estate. On the bright side, a bi-partisan push is happening in congress to bring the loan limits back up to their pre-expiration levels.
Ultimately, the Seattle and Bellevue areas are making progress through all the factors that be. 2011 will likely go down as a year of transition while positive trends did battle with factors that adversely affect real estate. With nearly an entire year of "normal" and "healthy" trends in the local real estate market's back pocket, 2012 is poised to continue the progress back towards healthy appreciation levels.
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate analyst
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The White House is considering longer reaching housing solutions November 1st, 2011
The White House has proposed and implemented a number of programs over the last couple years aimed at tempering the housing downturn… the first time buyer tax credit, the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program, and the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) are a few good examples.
The success, or lack thereof, of these programs has been widely debated, though it is relatively safe to say that these programs at least acted as band-aids as the White House attempted to stop the bleeding. Were these programs ever believed to be able to completely turn around a struggling housing market? Likely not.
Nationally speaking, two of the largest concerns moving forward are that A) the "shadow" inventory of foreclosed homes the banks have yet to release to the market will delay a return to historic and healthy appreciation levels and B) the large amount of existing underwater homeowners will choose to let their homes slip into foreclosure. It is extremely important to note that this is nationally speaking and that the local conditions in the Seattle and King County area differ greatly from the national conditions. In Nevada, for example, it is estimated that approximately half of homeowners are underwater on their mortgage (owe more than what it is worth). To put that into perspective, 1 in every 118 housing units in Nevada received a foreclosure filing in September 2011 as opposed to only 1 in every 1339 in Seattle or 1 in every 1725 in Bellevue.
Regardless of the differing local conditions, the national trends and sentiment do affect buyers in our area by keeping many of the concerned on the sidelines. There are legitimate concerns that a combination of underwater borrowers and shadow inventory will delay the amount of time it takes housing to get back to normal nationally. This is where the Obama Administration's plan to sell off large chunks of foreclosed homes to private partners comes in.
The White House is currently mulling over ways to sell as much as $30 billion in foreclosed homes that are currently on the books of government-run Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA, and a number of large fixed income funds are interested. Click on over to this Yahoo! Finance article for a more detailed analysis of where things stand with the evolving plan.
Though the plan does raise cause for concern as any action of this level would, locally speaking the positive effects may outweigh any negatives because the greater Seattle area does not have the extensive shadow inventory other states/regions have. Things here are and have been relatively normal for much of 2011, and a bump in the national sentiment towards housing that could result from such a plan would certainly be welcomed.
Regardless, the pros and cons of this proposal, like all of the previous proposals implemented by the White House, is up for debate...
- Robert E. Wasser, Seattle and Bellevue real estate trends analyst
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Rent vs. Buy Seattle market October 17th, 2011
Skepticism and fear have kept many would be buyers on the sidelines. The ensuing damage to home values after the financial crisis has created a larger mass of individuals who feel renting makes more sense than owning. For some families and individuals, renting can make more sense given their current situation. However, financially speaking owning saves hundreds of thousands of dollars for family.
To be fair, homeownership is a big choice and isn't something we recommend to everyone. If you have job uncertainty or think a move may be in your near future, for example, then a shorter term option may make more sense.
But, for those of us with that security and desire to stay in the same area, then you simply cannot beat owning.
Intrinsic benefits aside (i.e. ability to modify home as you please), the shear financial benefit is literally worth years of retirement.
If rents merely keep up with inflation and increase approximately 3% annually, then a $1,500 rent payment would cost the renter $856,358 over 30 years. The same $1,500 made to a fixed 30 year mortgage instead equates to approximately $540,000.
Appreciation and the fact that a homeowner would then own the property free and clear aside, the fact that a fixed mortgage payment never changes results in a homeowner keeping over $315,000 in their own pocket… or a couple years of retirement.
Historic appreciation in King County, even with the recent downturn in prices, falls in the 5-6% range, and even at a modest appreciation of 2-3% the financial benefit of owning is astounding.
Of course you do not have to own the same home for 30 years for the same principles to apply, you only have to own wisely which is where we come in. Analyzing the financial scenario of owning a home to help you make a smart choice is how we can improve your retirement outlook. One of the easiest steps to owning wisely is buying at the right time, and a combination of low prices and historically low interest rates is the perfect cocktail.
The question isn't should you buy now… the question is whether homeownership makes sense for you now. Contact us with all of your real estate questions to help build your understanding of whether homeownership makes sense for you.
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate blog, news, trends, and statistics
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Seattle and Bellevue's real estate trends from September show more positive signs of a strengthening real estate recovery October 6th, 2011
In my monthly real estate update I usually spend much of the time discussing median selling prices and sales volume, but I don't find it pressing to talk at length about sales volume following a typical trend this time of year or that median selling prices continue to trend flat.
Instead, I want to discuss how important last month's statistics regarding short sales is.
I spend time every day researching trends and stats for our local area while also staying in tune with national news and reports. Over the last month I have seen reports showing that large banks have begun putting more emphasis on getting short sales completed. September's sales figures show that the same is starting to take place in the Seattle and Bellevue area.
Now, it's not often that short sales are talked about as positive factors in the real estate market. Heck, I've rambled on for months about the effect of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosure sales) on home values and the time it takes for real estate to get back to a traditional and healthy market.
So how could higher volumes of short sales be good for the market? Simple. To begin with, many bank owned foreclosure listings on the market were once upon a time short sale listings where the seller was unable to negotiate a short sale with their bank. Further, short sales typically sell at discounted prices, however they do not sell at the deep discounts foreclosures generally sell at. So, when banks put more emphasis on completing short sales it means we have fewer foreclosure listings that will come on the market at a later date. It also means that the same home that may have become a foreclosure listing will likely sell at a higher price than it would have as a foreclosure listing.
Bottom Line: September's uptick in the ratio of short sales to traditional sales points to a faster recovery because we will work through the "distressed inventory" more quickly. And not only will we work through it faster, we can do so by avoiding many of the foreclosure sales that are more damaging to home values. Prices have steadily held flat in the Seattle and Bellevue area, so fewer foreclosures sales and a faster recovery pave the road to traditional appreciation.
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate market analyst
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Average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate nearly falls into the 3's! September 29th, 2011
The average interest rate for 30 year fixed mortgages came in at 4.01% last week, which is the lowest on record for 30 year mortgages. The last time longer term rates were below that was in 1951 when home loans lasted just 20 - 25 years.
If you are a real estate investor and you have not refinanced your investment properties, then you're missing out on hundreds of extra dollars of income every month.
If you are a traditional homeowner who is yet to refinance and who does not plan on selling in the near future, then do yourself a huge favor and call your mortgage broker. Even a reduction of just 1% in your interest rate will save you thousands in the short term and tens of thousands in the long term. To put it into perspective, a 4.125% interest rate on a 30 year fixed loan amount of $300,000 compared to a 5.125% rate would save you $64,623 over the life of the loan.
And lastly, if you are considering buying a home then understand what an opportunity rates like these are and how much it will improve your financial position as a homeowner. If concerns over the real estate market are keeping you on the sideline, then get to know the actual trends and statistics of the particular market you are interested in. As in, some markets have been performing much more normally… somewhere like Bellevue is doing much better than Renton which is doing much better than Florida. Get to know the local real estate news and not just the national news which differs significantly, then if you still feel like hanging out on the sideline at least you have the pertinent information needed to solidify your position.
Need a recommendation for an excellent mortgage professional? We have a few who have performed admirably for our clientele that we'd be happy to recommend when you contact us.
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate trends, statistics, news, and blog
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Examining sales data to add some depth to the foreclosures and short sales in our local market September 27th, 2011
I've spoken at length for many moons now about the major role of distressed sales (short sales and bank owned sales) in the timing of the real estate recovery. Earlier this month I presented the stark contrast in current foreclosure activity in our neck of the woods compared to the rest of the nation. If the foreclosure activity holds its current course in Bellevue, then a healthy real estate market is much closer than most of the nation.
So, because it is such an important topic, I would like to add some more depth to the existing volume of distressed sales on the market and their pace of sales.
As of today, there are currently 415 actively listed single family homes on the market in Bellevue, and of those 415 only 55 are either bank owned listings or short sales (13.3%). Not a bad percentage at all. Of those 55 distressed listings, 18 are bank owned while 37 are short sales.
Bank owned listings typically sell for noticeable discounts, so it doesn't come as much surprise that these listings are selling nearly as fast as they come on the market. In August, 11 bank owned listings sold for a bank owned supply of only 1.64 months (supply is the months it takes to sell the existing inventory at the current pace of sales). Analysts point to a "normal" supply as being 5-6 months and one that favors neither the buyer nor seller. A supply of less than two months means that there is fierce buyer competition for a very small supply of homes, and this is why I say buyers need to be prepared to move quickly when they find a bank owned home they like.
Though not on the topic of distressed sales, this would be a good time to point out that the monthly supply of all Bellevue single family homes has been holding in the 3.2 - 4.5 month range.
Back to distressed sales… In August, 14.7% of all Bellevue single family homes sales were distressed sales. To put that into perspective, the percentages for some other King County cities are: Seattle - 20.7%, Renton - 33.0%, and Kent came in at a whopping 62.1%. Yikes.
I often get asked "how's the real estate market?" My response is always "it depends on who you ask and where you're asking about," followed by something along the lines of "there are a lot of good things going on and positive trends solidifying in some areas, while others are still struggling." The aforementioned distressed sale figures are a perfect example of how real estate is local and why some areas are performing in a more "normal" or "healthy" manner than others.
Have questions about a particular area, community, or neighborhood? Give me a call and I'd be happy to research the sales data and shed some light on the market place…
- Robert E. Wasser - Bellevue real estate specialist
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Helpful Seattle and Bellevue school and crime data for buyers and investors considering a home purchase September 26th, 2011
Quality of schools and crime volume are two factors that play heavily into the demand, appeal, and accordingly the real estate appreciation rates of neighborhoods. Bellevue, for example, is known for an abundance of quality schools and has the feel of a "safer" city (as a whole). So, it shouldn't come as much surprise that Bellevue real estate is one of the most expensive areas in the county and state.
Crime rates and neighborhood safety are an important component of quality of life for most families. For traditional buyers it often makes the difference of where they feel comfortable raising a family. The same can be said for investors who are considering the safety of their investment and the type of tenant they can attract.
I have found the Washington State Report Card from the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction to be a great site to review schools side by side. The individual school reviews contain information on student to teacher ratios, test scores, dropout rates, ethnicity, percentage of teachers with a master's degree, etc.
In regards to crime, this City of Seattle crime map is very easy to use and helps home buyers research their area of interests and the volume and types of crime consistent for those areas.
The City of Bellevue crime map is a bit more archaic, but the information is still there on a variety of maps which help visualize general volume of crime for particular locations.
We can help with additional information regarding real estate statistics (for example)… all you need to do is ask!
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate blog, news, market trends and statistics
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Foreclosure trends significantly differ in King County compared to the nation as a whole - evidence of our local recovery's strengthening foundation September 16th, 2011
Beyond the economy and the consumer confidence affected by the economy, possibly the biggest factor at play in the real estate market's ability to return to traditional appreciation levels is the foreclosure inventory and backlog.
Simply put, clearing out the inventory of foreclosure sales is vital to a full fledged real estate recovery. So, it has been promising to see the volume of foreclosure sales as a percentage of total sales spike as 2010 closed out and into the beginning of 2011. More promising is that prices have held rather flat in the Bellevue and Seattle area while existing foreclosure inventories have dropped. We have been making progress clearing out the inventory while mitigating the negative effect foreclosure place on home prices.
Nationally speaking, a portion of the progress can be attributed to the delay in foreclosures that resulted in the "robo-signing" mess… many new foreclosure starts were delayed while the larger banks ensured their processes were in order. A report out this month from foreclosure data firm RealtyTrac shows that foreclosure filings were 33% lower than a year ago, though they rose 7% from July to August, signaling a fresh batch of foreclosure may be on their way.
It is crucial to point out that those numbers are NATIONAL figures. Local numbers are even better. In King County, filings were down 24% month over month and 12.6% for Washington as a whole. Further, compared to last year, King County is down 51% and all of Washington State is down 53%. For King County, 1 in every 900 homes received a foreclosure filing in August; 1 in every 894 statewide. This is significantly better than the national rate of 1 in every 570 homes.
It is also important to point out that Washington is a "non-judicial" foreclosure state (foreclosures are processed without court intervention), meaning that foreclosures are a bit more automatic in layman's terms. I can't speak for the banks, but I have gotten the impression that much of the concern over their bank processes stemmed from "judicial" foreclosure states (where the foreclosure process is run through the court and homeowners often have a right of redemption following a foreclosure sale).
What I'm getting at, is that Washington may not have the foreclosure backlog that the national numbers suggest, and last month's numbers support that. Getting a grip on the "shadow inventory" of foreclosures is nearly impossible, so it will be important to continue monitoring the reports, but for now this slice of good news is certainly nice.
Ultimately, this is one more piece of evidence that a recovery is firmly grabbing hold. It also supports how local real estate brokers continue to notice that the market is behaving in a much more "normal" manner.
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate trends, market news, statistics, and blog
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Is it the right time to buy a vacation home? September 14th, 2011
A perfect combination of historically low interest rates and affordable home prices is making the dream of owning a vacation home more feasible, and many families are beginning to seriously ponder the question.
For some, a vacation home is exactly that… a second home to escape to. For others it may be a seasonal home where they spend large chunks of the year to take advantage of better weather. Still for others, a vacation home can be both a vacation home and an investment property when income is generated by using it as a vacation rental.
Regardless of the nature of the vacation home, here are some examples of traditional getaway locations and how affordable prices have become:
Vail, CO - Median home prices are now around $385,000 compared to $562,000 five years ago
Palm Beach, FL - Median home prices are now around $250,000 compared to $758,000 five years ago
Martha's Vineyard, MA - Median home price around $400,000 compared to $638,000 five years ago
And not to forget about our own backyard… areas east of the cascades offer some great escapes along the lakes, rivers, and golf resorts within a couple hour drive.
For some families, a vacation home may always been a dream, but the ideal combination of affordability and historically low interest rates makes the dream of owning a vacation seem more like an attainable reality for other families.
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate blog, news, market trends, and statistics
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Bellevue and Seattle area real estate continues to make progress thru August
September 9th, 2011
There's a reason why local real estate brokers have noticed real estate feeling much more "normal" as 2011 progresses.
In Bellevue, for example, total sales of single family homes this year have now officially outpaced last year while Seattle is poised to surpass last year's numbers in the next month or two. The leads should continue to grow because the second half of last year was stuck in a rut due to government tax incentives shifting 2010's demand towards the first half of last year.
Median selling prices in Bellevue have also rebounded since the beginning of the year thanks in large part to fewer distressed sales (short sales and foreclosure sales) dragging down selling prices. Averaging out the median selling price of each month in Bellevue dating back 20 months, we see that the $542,500 median selling price of single family homes in August is on par with the 20 month average of $547,463. For additional commentary and a month by month tally of Bellevue stats click on over to our Bellevue Real Estate Statistics page.
Seattle, meanwhile, is also seeing fewer distressed sales as a percentage of total sales; distressed sales accounted for 20.31% of all sales, which was the lowest percentage of the year. Typically, fewer distressed sales trend with a higher median selling price because there are fewer discounted sales working against prices. However, the median selling price in Seattle did slightly drop month over month, which points towards more buyers seeking out the best deals on the market. Buyers may also be growing more pessimistic about the condition of foreclosure homes and the short sale purchase process. For additional commentary and a month by month tally of Seattle stats click on over to our Seattle Real Estate Statistics page.
At the end of the day things continue to move in the right direction. The lingering concerns over the economy that are keeping buyers on the sidelines continue to do battle with the historically low rates and the affordability of real estate that makes now an excellent time for many families to buy. Regardless, as 2011 progress, the growing trend in real estate has been that "things are feeling much more normal."
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate trends, statistics, news, and blog
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Will this be the return of the neighborhood bank?
August 30th, 2011
Throughout the years, the small, neighborhood bank has played a major role in the financing of real estate. Known for lending on a more personalized basis through their own portfolio, small banks at times have been a stark contrast to the rigid lending standards of the major banks that dominated (and suffocated) the real estate landscape over the last decade.
Multiple times we've discussed at length the mortgage lending changes being proposed at the federal level, changes that largely play into the hands of the big banks who are largely responsible for the mess that's been left behind the financial crisis. What's being called the "qualified residential mortgage" (QRM) is currently under consideration, and the point of the QRM is to define what is a qualified loan based on a set of standards (i.e. credit score, down payment, etc); borrowers who fall outside of the requirements will be met with higher loan costs and rates.
As a result of some of the QRM requirements that will harm a large pool of good borrowers, smaller banks are now arguing to be exempt from the requirements because they put additional pressure on them and are unnecessary given their particular lending history and success.
Jack Hopkins, CEO of CorTrust Bank, a smaller bank in South Dakota, told the Senate Banking Committee (who is currently considering which direction the QRM standards should go) that the rigid standards would likely put him out of business:
"As this committee considers the development of national mortgage servicing standards, I urge you to ensure that they do not add to the regulatory burden of community banks, which are servicing their portfolios successfully and have not contributed to widely- reported problems… We must preserve the role of community banks in mortgage servicing because the alternative is further consolidation in the servicing industry, which will only harm borrowers."
Most people are likely unaware that the banks that shaped the financial crisis, and their vast abundance of lobbyists, are actually making progress towards further dominance over the lending landscape. Hopkins hits the nail on the head when he mentions "further consolidation in the servicing industry," which one would have to be a fool to believe isn't what the big banks and their lobbyists are pushing for.
Additionally, the Executive Vice President of the National Association of Credit Unions, Dan Berger, sent a letter to Senate committee leaders seeking out an exemption to credit unions as well.
"While it is important that the bad actors who failed thousands of their borrowers are held accountable, we would oppose extending any new compliance burden stemming from national mortgage servicing standards onto good actors such as credit unions."
There's an obvious theme developing in the battle of the community banks against the big banks. Community banks lack the firepower of the overwhelming number of big bank lobbyists, though they do have fact, evidence, and reason on their side.
If they are successful in appealing to the powers that be in the White House, then we may be witnessing the reemergence of the neighborhood bank's role in residential lending…
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate market trends, news, statistics, and blog
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Five Northwest cities make Money Magazine's Best Places to Live list
August 23rd, 2011
Money Magazine recently came out with their list of the best places to live, and a handful of Northwest cities scatter the various lists.
On the list of best small towns, which amongst other factors took into account job opportunities, top-notch schools, neighborhood safety, economic strength, weather, and things to do, were three NW cities cracking the top 25… Mukilteo (#9), Sammamish (#15), and Newcastle (#18).
Meanwhile, Mercer Island flexed their money muscles and came in at 23 on the list of top earning towns with a population of 23,577, median family income of $146,570, and median home price of $754,000.
And for all of the single residents, you may want to consider a move to Kirkland, which came in at 22 on the list of best places for the rich and single with a population of 49,931, 30.8% single rate, and median family income of $101,056. Though a quick poll of local single people would likely reveal they feel that dating is a bit of an uphill battle in our area...
- Prospera Real Estate's Bellevue and Seattle real estate blog, news, market trends and statistics
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Average 30 year mortgage rate hits record low on heels of US' credit downgrade
August 19th, 2011
A funny thing happened when the United States' credit rating was downgraded from AAA to AA+, essentially signifying to the world that US Bonds were suddenly not as safe… everyone freaked out about the economy and moved their funds from stocks to those same US Bonds that had just been downgraded!
It's hard to avoid the irony.
As a general indicator and not an exact science, mortgage interest rates tend to track the 10 Year US Bond Yield. So, as money piled into government bonds and the 10 year yield dropped to the lowest rate on record, so too has the average interest rate on 30 year fixed mortgages.
The average rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage dropped to a record low of 4.15 percent which fell below the previous record of 4.17 percent set in November of 2010, says Freddie Mac. Just last week the average rate was 4.32 percent and as high as 4.91 percent in April. Five years ago the average 30 year fixed rate was around 6.5 percent, and it exceeded 8 percent in 2000. Meanwhile, the average rate on the popular refinancing option, the 15 year mortgage, fell to 3.36 percent. Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country Monday through Wednesday each week to come up with the average rates.
Today's significantly lower rates means that buyers can comfortably afford more expensive homes than in years prior. As an example, a 20% down buyer in 2005, who wanted to keep their mortgage payment around $2,000 a month, can now afford a home that costs around $100,000 more. Add in the availability of low priced homes and buyers are able to get way more home for their money.
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate news, market trends, statistics, and blog
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Tacoma and Seattle real estate lead list of cities likely to appreciate the most by spring 2013, says Fiserv, INC
August 15th, 2011
According to a report issued last Tuesday by financial-data firm Fiserv, INC along with Moody's Analytics, Fiserv's analysis predicts a 25% appreciation of real estate in Tacoma by spring of 2013 and 10% in Seattle.
Fiserv's chief economist, David Stiff, points to Tacoma and Seattle's strong and diverse economies as the backbone of a strong recovery. Nationwide, Fiserv's predicts home prices will start to turn around in early 2012 and that home prices in the 384 metro areas will rise by 2.7% between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 with gains in 365 of the 384 metro areas.
In this report, Stiff points to falling mortgage delinquency rates and declining foreclosures as a positives that will help outweigh a major negative which is the average American household's damaged confidence in the economy. Additionally, the Kennewick-Pasco-Richland metro area, Spokane metro area, and Olympia metro area are in the 10 markets projected to see the highest increases in home values between the first quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012. Including Tacoma, that puts 4 out of the top 10 appreciation areas by spring 2012 in Washington (with Seattle close behind).
More information on the Indexes can be found at the Fiserv Case-Shiller website at www.caseshiller.fiserv.com.
- Prospera Real Estate's Bellevue and Seattle real estate news, market trends, statistics, and blog
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Founder of ForSaleByOwner.com can't sell home on his own - hires broker who sold it for 150k more than his previous asking price
August 10th, 2011
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the founder and former chief operating officer of ForSaleByOwner.com tried to sell his New York City apartment on his own for six months… unsuccessfully. In a proper fit of irony and in line with research that has proven homes listed by brokers sell more easily and for higher prices, the former founder turned to a real estate broker to get the job done.
And get the job done is exactly what he did, quickly selling the NYC apartment for $150,000 more than the owner's previous asking price.
From the WSJ article:
"Looking to move his family to the suburbs, [Mr. Sambrotto] said he carefully staged his apartment for sale himself, and put it on the market. But after using a mix of websites to publicize his apartment, he said he had only 'middling success' and switched to a broker"
- Prospera Real Estate's Bellevue and Seattle real estate news, blog, market trends, and statistics
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July's median sale price dropped in Bellevue due to an apparent uptick in first time buyer and investor activity; pending sales rise
August 8th, 2011
The median sale price of single family homes in Bellevue has dropped to near 2011 lows in July, and first time buyers and investors looking to snatch up lower priced homes appear to be a leading factor. A drop in the median sales price was expected as pending sales, the leading indicator for future sales, had fallen in June, although the price drop was more significant than the numbers would have suggested.
July's median selling price of single family homes in Bellevue was $475,000 and far below June's mark of $594,695. Obviously, home values haven't actually declined 20% in just one month, so it is important to keep in mind the variable nature of analyzing one month's tallies. Bellevue has seen its fair share of good real estate news throughout the year as median sale prices and total sales volume saw marked increases throughout the year, and July's sales tally is a good example of the of the rocky road of recovery.
On the bright side, pending sales increased 15% month over month to 238 pending sales, which is higher than May's pending sale volume of 233 (which led to June's impressive median selling price). So, a significant uptick in August's future median sales price is a strong possibility. Another positive note was that the supply of homes (amount of months it would take to sell the existing inventory at the current sales pace) was 4.41 months and below the 5-6 months analysts say is "normal" (favoring neither the buyer or seller). A lower supply of homes spurs buyer competition and typically leads to rising sale prices.
To shed some more light on last month's low median sales price we see that of July's 93 single family home sales in Bellevue, 26.9% were in the 300k-400k price range compared to only 12.6% in June. Further, only 34.4% of home sales occurred at 600k+ in July compared to a whopping 48% in June. So, these numbers suggest a much larger proportion of first time buyers and investors buying in the more affordable price range. Foreclosure sales are commonly a culprit of lower median home values, however July only saw a modest increase in the volume of bank owned and short sales.
Altogether, given the monthly ups and downs, seasonal trends, and government tax incentive induced trends, the overall trend has been largely flat for about two years now. Ultimately, a sustained bottom of the market builds a more solid foundation for future growth.
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate market statistics, trends, news and blog
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Modifying the mortgage interest tax deduction revisited to help cut debt
July 28th, 2011
We all know that the United States Congress and Senate are bickering and jockeying over how to tackle (or not tackle!) the looming August 2nd debt deadline. We know that part of any bipartisan long term solution is to find places to cut spending. We understand that a multitude of people are likely to be affected due to the potential for cuts or alterations to things like Medicare, Social Security, and programs to assist the disabled or those in poverty. In some way or another most everyone will likely be affected.
You can add 35 million households to that list of people who may be affected.
One of the major benefits of homeownership, the mortgage interest tax deduction, is being eyed as one of the ways to make a dent in the ongoing debt crisis. This isn't a new idea; it's just one of many topics the government is discussing in response to the financial bubble that has held the housing market and millions of homeowners hostage, which altogether have the tone of downplaying homeownership as an important part of the American fiber. It seems that many politicians apparently don't see homeownership as the American Dream anymore...
Nevermind the obvious benefit to the community from a traditional homeowner who takes care of their property, who cares about the neighborhood their children play in, who cares about the schools and the level of education their children get, etc, etc. Tell me, is it that hard to pick out a rental property on your street? You know, the one probably in need of a paint job that has knee high grass full of dandelions, overgrown plants, etc. Obviously there are many great families who rent and help keep up the presentation of their home, but it is hard to match the pride of ownership of a homeowner who lives in his/her own property. But I digress…
To the 35 million households that claimed the mortgage interest tax deduction it means about $100 billion every year for an average of close to $3,000 of tax burden a year.
Housing industry groups like the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) have been vehemently arguing against removing or altering the deduction on the simple basis that A) it will further hinder an already sensitive housing market struggling to recover, and B) the housing market fuels 30% of the gross domestic product from brokers to builders. Said MBA President David Stevens, "We are very concerned about what would happen as the outcome to an industry that fuels 30 percent of gross domestic product if it was removed."
The mortgage interest tax deduction is a big deduction and I'm not going to sit here and say it isn't worth looking at as a place to improve our debt situation. It's worth looking at everything. What I will say is that I have concerns that any changes now could further dampen the housing market's ability to recover. It was previously discussed then dismissed, and chances are it will be left off the table this time too.
Still, regardless of profession, age, wealth, and health these next few days before the deadline are likely to affect millions of Americans in one way or another.
Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate news, market trends, statistics, and blog
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"Robo-Signing" still shown to be prevalent amongst major banks
July 25th, 2011
Documents from several of the companies that process mortgage paperwork on behalf of some of the nation's biggest banks have received thousands of documents with questionable signatures since last fall when the "robo-signing" news first broke.
This AP Exclusive sheds some light on the extent that fraudulent signing still persists. Major banks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America halted foreclosure activity in October to address the media brightly shining a light on the inadequacies of their paperwork processes. Foreclosure activity eventually resumed and, in April, 14 of the biggest banks reached an agreement with regulators to resolve their mistakes and pay restitution to homeowners who had been wrongly foreclosed on.
However, in Essex County, Massachusetts the office that handles property deeds has found nearly 1,300 documents since October in which the name "Linda Green" was signed… yet the name was signed in 22 different handwriting styles and with different titles as well. These instances glaringly point to the banks not doing enough to fix the problems.
Do the banks really care to adequately fix the issues or are the banks simply too big to make changes on these levels? We've heard the "too big to…(fail)" argument before, so there is legitimate cause to feel apprehensive over the actions of the banks. Though one thing is for certain... that regardless of the gripe the real estate market and buyers everywhere greatly depend on these same banks to make the loans that allows the purchase and sale of homes to go round.
- Prospera Real Estate - Seattle and Bellevue real estate news, market trends, statistics, and blog
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Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics calls for more government support of housing - but is it less "support" that we need?
July 22nd, 2011
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist for Moody's Analytics, recently called for more government support of housing. His recommendations include the government helping to facilitate HARP refinances that allow homeowners to refinance at low rates up to 125% value of their home as well as supporting principal-reducing loan modifications. His ideas stem from reducing the volume of future foreclosures which I can certainly appreciate.
It's great that that Mark Zandi is looking out for the housing market, but there are some realms where industry professionals feel we need less "support" from the government. Particularly, the government is playing a role in defining a "qualified residential mortgage," and one of the requirements of the current proposal is a minimum 20% down payment. Studies show an extremely thin correlation between down payments and default rates (more on this here), so this current proposal reduces a buyer's ability to purchase by forcing good borrowers who can only afford a 5 or 10% down payment into higher rate loan programs, effectively reducing the amount of home they can purchase. This looks an awful lot like bank lobbyists working to put more money in bank pockets.
Altogether it's "support" like this that homeowners, buyers, and industry professionals should be opposed to. There are better ways to clean up financial guidelines, and primarily they involve debt to income ratios and not lending to borrowers who do not have a solid history of making payments.
The one recommendation that Zandi did get right, in my opinion, is to hold off on the scheduling reduction in conforming loan limits from $729,750 to $625,000 in areas with higher home values… the Seattle and Bellevue area being one of those locales. Reducing the conforming loan limit equates to higher financing costs for borrowers looking to buy above the limit.
But really, many believe that the bigger problem the housing industry faces is how seemingly cozy the big banks have gotten with the white house. It's scary really, and most people simply aren't aware of it. Good homeowners and ethical real estate professionals unfortunately took the fall for the banks' practice of making bad loans and then betting that these bad loans would sour. It's unwittingly been called the real estate bubble, but the simple truth is it was a financial bubble created and supported by the banks.
Whether or not this type of thing interests you, I recommend you watch "Inside Job" which details bank and lobbyist involvement IN the white house and the developments that led to the financial bubble. Trust me, you will be appalled at the level the banks have infiltrated the White House and the government's seeming willingness to accommodate their infiltration from the Bush's to Obama.
For example, the Treasury Secretary that played a major role in the bank bailouts was Henry Paulson (2006-2009), and where do you think he came from? Paulson was formerly the CEO of Goldman Sachs. Absolutely maddening what has and still is happening.
Anyways, "Inside Job" is nicely narrated by Matt Damon and a very good watch, even for those who don't love documentaries.
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue real estate blog, market trends, news, and statistics
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Foreclosure filings increase from May to June in King County - will now be a better time to sell than the not too distant future?
July 14th, 2011
We've reported in the last few months that home values have steadily risen since the beginning of the year in Bellevue and Seattle. An increased in buyer demand and sales certainly played a role, but the decline in foreclosure sales was the primary contributing factor to rising median home sale prices.
Recap: foreclosures and short sales typically sell at deep discounts which alters the median sale price, and of course there is the fact that traditional sellers are often forced to compete with these low prices. So, the median sale price of single family homes jumped over the first half of 2011 as the volume of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) dropped rapidly.
In May, foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac reported that 1 in every 1009 homes in King County received a foreclosure filing. In general, the trend had been toward fewer filings up until June's number was reported at 1 in every 459. This is obviously a stark contrast to May and is a sign that banks are getting back on track with their paperwork after the "robo-signing" mess slowed their processes.
Of course, this is just a one month reprieve and a trend is yet to form. But regardless, this does put the possibility of a larger volume of distressed homes entering the market on the radar.
What does this mean for buyers? For buyers it means that there is the possibility that home prices will remain stagnate for a longer duration which will help offset the increased cost of financing the purchase as interest rates rise (the government is working on tightening the definition of a "quality" mortgage and plans to wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the future… both of these actions will attribute to more risk and cost for the banks issuing the loans which will be passed onto the buyer in the form of higher down payments, interest rates, and fees).
What does this mean for sellers? For sellers it means that the current reprieve in the volume of distressed properties on the market, which has led to higher priced home sales, may prove to be the best time in the near future to sell. Increased buyer demand and fewer distressed properties on the market has led to higher priced home sales through the first half of 2011 making now the best opportunity sellers have had in quite some time. Additionally, sales typically spike during the "summer selling season" when more active buyers are looking at homes before dwindling into the winter and holiday months.
For some homeowners now may be the best time, while for others we may recommend holding onto the home for a longer period of time if possible. We would be happy to perform a market analysis of your home and present the current conditions of your neighborhood if you would like to find out if now is indeed a good time for you to sell. Understanding your direct competition plays heavily into understanding the likelihood of success at a particular price when selling your home. Our job as real estate brokers starts with providing you the facts so you can make the best choice for your family.
- Prospera Real Estate's Seattle and Bellevue area real estate trends, statistics, news, and blog
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A few summer homeowner tips to protect your investment and save you from major repairs
July 9th, 2011
If there is one thing in particular I could hammer home about protecting your home or investment properties, it would be to ensure water is property diverted away from your home. I've been to a lot of inspections throughout the years, and the one thing that blaringly sticks out about homes that need costly repair work is that the needed repairs stem from a water issue. The biggest contributor to water issues are homeowners who fail to pay attention to their gutter system and the vegetation around the home.
So, now that the warmer summer months are upon us, here are a few good items to spend part of a sunny Saturday checking out…
Gutters: The concept here is simple… make sure water can flow through them and then AWAY from your home (see picture). Gutters full of debris either lead to water pooling and seeping into the wood/roof above/around the gutter or spilling over the side to an undesirable location. Just as important is to have a drain pipe that comes down the side of your home which then drains water away either through an extension or a small drain field. I've seen a lot of homes with foundation issues stemming from a drainpipe that simply spewed water out right next to the foundation where it pooled and settled. Foundation repairs are obviously costly, so take the little bit of time to make sure water is diverted away from your home.
Vegetation: Trees and shrubs coming into contact with your home are an avenue for insects/rodents and water. Leave a plant touching a home long enough and moss will form, and the combination of moss and a moist environment will eventually lead to damaged siding. Further, trees overhanging your roof foster moss growth which grows into the grooves of your roof material (this picture does a good job displaying how an overhanging tree fosters moss growth). Not only does it reduce the life span of your roof, but the growing moss creates a highway for water to enter your home. If you do need to remove moss from your roof do not use a powerful spray from a hose or pressure washer as this will literally wash away years of your roof's useful lifespan. Do it by hand and use a moss killer. No one wants to blow thousands of dollars repairing their roof, siding, interior drywall, paint, etc, so just take a little time to make sure all your shrubbery and trees are pruned away from your home.
Siding: While walking around your home to scope out any plants that may need to be pruned back, take some time to look at any spots where caulking may have failed, spots that need to be caulked, or signs of failing paint. If there's even a minor break in the paint/caulk, then water can get in and rot your wood. So, take a look around your windows, look for any nail holes that can use a swab of caulk, or any spots where cracking in the paint job may be evident. A few hours a year touching up failing paint and caulking will save you thousands in the long run.
Most costly repairs come from homeowners who do not pay attention to their home, so the best recipe is to walk around your home a few times a year to look for any potential signs of trouble. Simply put, proactive homeowners save money and heartache.
- Robert E. Wasser - Bellevue and Seattle real estate blog, news, market trends, and statistics
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Bellevue and Seattle real estate statistics: continually improving home values and sales trends as the first half of the year comes to a close
July 5th, 2011
With half of 2011 now in the books, we are seeing consistently improving home values and sales trends after a rocky start to the year.
Here are a couple highlights for Bellevue real estate…
The median selling price of single family homes rose for the 5th straight month to $594,695 in June from $468,000 in January
The amount of single family home sales increased 16.6% from May to June, and the 119 sales was almost identical to June 2010's 120 sales, and that was a month largely fueled by buyers taking advantage of the expiring home buyer tax credits
Fewer distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) hindered the market for the 5th straight month as well, now comprising only 12.61% of single family home sales compared to 31.15% in January
The supply (months it would take to sell current inventory at current sales pace) of single family homes fell to only 3.45 months - this is well below the 6 month "normal" supply
The second bullet is extremely positive and shows that real estate is finally behaving much more normally and without the need for government intervention. The third and fourth bullets are the obvious factors as to why the median selling price of homes has climbed. Distressed sales sell at deep discounts, and the fewer there are the less traditional sellers have to compete with their prices. Add competing buyers to the mix thanks to there being fewer homes to choose from, and you have the perfect recipe for climbing prices.
Median Sales Price Single Family in Bellevue
% of Traditional Single Family Home Sales in Bellevue
* We compile the statistics based on MLS sales data
Here are a few highlights for Seattle real estate…
The median selling price of single family homes held steady month over month at $380,000
573 single family homes sold in June which is the highest volume since the home buyer tax credit fueled sales in May and June of 2010
Single family homes are selling in an average of 52 days which is also the fastest pace of sales since the tax credit fueled months of 2010
Seattle's real estate recovery is shaping up a little differently than Bellevue, however the same principles are holding true. There have been fewer foreclosure sales plaguing the market and demand has been making a dent in supply. 21.82% of single family home sales in Seattle in June were distressed sales, so the overall numbers are moving a bit more slowly compared to Bellevue. But, on the positive side, this is still below the national average.
It is also important to note that 21.82% isn't indicative of Seattle as a whole as there are some areas faring better than others. As an example, only about 8% of single family homes sales were distressed sales in the area north of 520, east of I5, and up through the Lake City area (U District, Sand Point, Ravenna, Lake City, Laurelhurst, Roosevelt, Wedgwood, etc).
BOTTOM LINE: The continuing trends are becoming a larger and larger sample supporting the growing strength of the real estate recovery...
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate statistics, market trends, news, and blog
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The financial meltdown: from one swing of the pendulum to the other
June 28th, 2011
During the lead up to the financial meltdown, when it seemed like everyone's father's, brother's, nephew's, cousin's former roommate could get a zero down home loan, the nation experienced just about as far as the pendulum could go in regards to ease of financing. Lending guidelines were incredibly lax and seemingly non-existent. Since then, and in response to the mess they helped create, banks have responded by swinging the pendulum the other direction.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that 26.8% of home loan applicants were rejected in 2010.
Of that nearly 27% there is certainly a hefty chunk of borrowers who should rightfully be rejected no matter where the pendulum is. Everyone can agree that refining loan qualification guidelines was desperately needed. There does, however, seem to be a growing problem that good borrowers are being rejected due to small caveats in bank's strict lending standards. It has become less about looking at a borrower as a whole and more about making sure they meet every last guideline, and in doing so hard working families with a history of making timely payments are being turned away.
These days, it is not uncommon for families with great credit, who can well afford a home purchase, to get turned away on smaller technicalities.
Much of the country's real estate has struggled due to a combination of a glut of supply and undervalued bank owned homes plaguing the market (though the Bellevue and Seattle area has recently been experiencing a rather healthy ratio of supply and demand). Looking at that 27% makes you wonder how home values would have performed last year had that number been closer to 20%...
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate news, market trends, statistics, and blog
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Foreclosures, home values, and what we might expect through the rest of 2011
June 22nd, 2011
Generally speaking, and outside of economic factors, the slow pace of the real estate recovery is due in large part to foreclosure activity. Specifically, median home values continue to stagnate as foreclosures sell at undervalued prices, and these low sale prices then damage the valuation of appraisals on the purchase of non-foreclosure sales.
Simply put, clearing out the foreclosure inventory, while harmful to the overall median home sale values, is necessary for real estate to begin appreciating in a traditional fashion.
So, it is welcomed news that foreclosure filings have fallen for 16 straight months. Most recently, foreclosure activity has waned as the banks get their paperwork in order as a result of the "robo-signing" mess. This has also kept the banks from releasing additional inventory to the market, meaning there is a bit of a backlog of homes that will eventually increase supply in the marketplace. Still, fewer homeowners are falling behind on their payments, so there is seemingly an end at sight.
The inconsistent flow of foreclosure inventory to the market, coupled with government intervention in the form of the first time buyer tax credit, has led to waves in the median prices of sold homes. Looking at Bellevue as an example, this graph of median prices of sold, single family homes in Bellevue does an excellent job illustrating that effect…
We all know by now how the media loves those attention grabbing headlines about falling home values, but tell me, if you were to draw a trend line across that graph where would you draw it? Pretty much straight across… or flat, right?. So, the media can say what they want, but the bottom line is that home values in the Bellevue and Seattle area have trended flat for a long time now.
Sidebar: do you think the buyers who are "waiting for the bottom of the market" before buying have actually seen or researched the above data, or are they just reading the headlines? We've been at the bottom of the market for a long time… it's more so that foreclosure activity and headlines have clouded the way the market is perceived.
So what should we expect home values to do through the rest of the year? Well, I expect home prices to continue trending up through September as more active buyers hit the market during the summer season and while banks are still holding back inventory. But, that inventory has to hit the market and will in the not very distant future, and this will lead to lower median sale prices towards the end of the year.
Thus, it looks like you can extend that flat trend line out a bit. BUT, the most important factor, in my educated opinion, is that foreclosure filings have continually been dropping. Meaning we should begin making progress on clearing out that inventory of foreclosed homes in the bank's possession.
When that happens, the real estate market will finally be prepared to start moving that trend line up.
- Robert E. Wasser - Seattle and Bellevue real estate trends, news, statistics, and blog
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Who is saying it's a good time to buy real estate?
June 15th, 2011
Despite the onslaught of attention grabbing negative news the media pours out, some of the big boys are starting to tout now as the time to buy real estate.
Maybe it's because I eat, sleep, and breath real estate, stay on top of developing and historical trends, and understand the COST of owning (instead of focusing on price) that makes this such obvious news to me. But for those who are not routinely submerged in real estate, here's a bit of news coming from some major national media outlets:
- Ratio of home prices to income is 20.9% lower than the 15 year average through 2010 - "Whatever the excess supply of housing is, it is shrinking pretty fast." A virtual standstill of home building along with the number of new households on the rise will lead to demand outpacing supply; buyer competition will lead to rising home values - "The regular marketplace (non-foreclosure homes) is hanging tough"
- Low, fixed interest rate payments stay the same while the alternative option your rental rates will go up -Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, says "like any asset - after a crash, after prices have fallen very quickly - everybody is very nervous and reticent to dive back in, but it's the people who do that (dive back in) who benefit in the long run"
It can be difficult to look past the headlines to see the bigger picture. For some people there may never be the right time to buy, but for those who envision homeownership as part of their future, well, there just may never be a better time than now.
- Robert E. Wasser - Bellevue and Seattle real estate market trends, statistics, news, and blog
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China's real estate bubble?
June 11th, 2011
Monitoring the effect of the financial bubble on the rise and fall of real estate as a trend as well as the corresponding effect it has had on other sectors of the economy consumes much of my time and thoughts. While digging through economic news I came across this interesting article regarding real estate in China.
Admittedly, I understand real estate in China about as well as I understand the Chinese language, which is probably a fair analogy… my wife is Chinese and I've picked up on bits and pieces of Cantonese. Anyways, having spent so much time through the years monitoring and researching our local and national real estate climate, I have to admit I found it a bit refreshing to read about what's going on with real estate for a different world power.
Regardless of whether or not a bursting bubble is imminent for China, it's interesting to read the insight into the concerning factors and how real estate affects China's economy as a whole. Although things are different by nature, there are certainly some stark similarities…
- Robert E. Wasser - Bellevue and Seattle real estate blog, news, market trends, and statistics